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- February 21 | Tails or Tails
February 21 | Tails or Tails
“If you’re terrific in this business, you’re right six times out of ten.” – Peter Lynch on investing
Life offers us three types of problems.
9/10 Problems: like performing music, driving on the road, or presenting to the board, these are situations in which you must be correct almost all of the time, here called ‘9/10 problems” because you must be correct at least 9/10 times. Life can be forgiving, but there are certain areas where there is very little margin for error or creativity—nobody wants the person laying the foundation of their house to express their creativity on the clock.
1/10 Problems: like writing poetry, starting a company, or almost any creative endeavor. These are problems where you only need to be correct occasionally. Any writer will gladly write 9 bad pages if it means the universe gifts them with 1 truly brilliant one. Not every song an artists records a demo of needs to be good. These kinds of problems function because not everyone has to see every part of the work. You can show what worked an discard what did not at any cost.
6/10 Problems: like pitching a new campaign, giving a piece of advice, or proposing a new strategic direction. Great success in most industries can be found by being correct slightly more often than you are incorrect. The greatest sports better of all time made 57% of his bets.
The real danger, or reward, is when you try to treat one of these problems like they’re one of the others.
Nobody wants to drive on the same road as a 1/10 driver—they’re far too dangerous.
Nobody wants to hear a new business pitch from someone who treats it as a 9/10 problem—the work will be safe, exact, and oh so incredibly boring.
Nobody wants to hear a song written by someone who treats it as a 6/10 problem—as if it’s our responsibility as the listener to tell them what is and is not working.
So—what kind of work are you going to do today?… Read the rest